Chula Vista’s dream of getting a university seemed closer last week after Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation that exempts the city from having to offer its land to developers for affordable housing.
City officials hope the Otay Ranch site will be a 383-acre University and Innovation District that will serve at least 20,000 students and have research and development companies that would collectively employ about 8,000 people.
The plan, for now, is to attract an existing university to move to the location. The site is near the SR 125 Toll Road, considered far from current job and education hubs. It lacks access to the San Diego Trolley but MTS does run bus service in that area.
An attempt earlier this year for Chula Vista to build a facility on the site for San Diego State University is somewhat in limbo after the university accused the city of misrepresenting the project and the building design.
Q: Will San Diego County universities want to move some operations to the Otay Ranch site?
Lynn Reaser, economist
NO: Although great in concept, the plan is probably unrealistic. The city has been working for 30 years to attract a university to the site. Last year the city did entice San Diego State University to establish a Cinematic Arts and Academic Center and Library. However, the project has run into a snag and is unlikely to attract the 20,000-student-body campus envisioned by the city.
Phil Blair, Manpower
YES: They certainly need that flexibility. Student majors change, technology changes and interaction with the private sector changes. The university needs to be able to use any space it occupies to its highest potential depending on the focus and demand.
Gary London, London Moeder Advisors
YES: There are at least three good reasons why this is a good idea.: 1) Chula Vista is far more housing accessible than other communities; 2) its proximity to Mexico and the opportunity for cross-border curriculum; and 3) Chula Vista wants it, as demonstrated by years of pressure and land set-asides. There are big economic upsides for communities to house major university curriculum, including spin-off enterprises. I can’t see a downside.
Alan Gin, University of San Diego
YES: Southern San Diego County is one of the fastest growing areas in the region. It is underserved in terms of higher education, which creates an opportunity for one of the existing local universities to locate a satellite facility there. The proximity to the border may also allow for more students to attend from Mexico. Both of these factors are important as universities are facing a demographic cliff in the near future. Finally, the diversity of the area helps in terms of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) issues.
Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates
YES: The model of setting up a satellite campus is a good one and it has been expertly executed by Arizona State University at multiple locations, inside and outside of the state of Arizona. The site being considered in Otay Mesa is good, but is far from current job and education hubs and lacks adequate transportation access. San Diego State University should look at all available options as the main campus will limit growth.
James Hamilton, UC San Diego
Not participating this week.
Austin Neudecker, Weave Growth
YES: I hope a reputable university will avail itself of the substantial opportunity to build a campus in southern San Diego. I grew up in this area and consider myself an advocate for its continued growth, especially in higher education. The rapid population growth, availability of land, strong high schools, proximity to the border, and availability of labor make the location nearly ideal. Admittedly, transportation options are lacking, but what large vacant plots differ?
Chris Van Gorder, Scripps Health
YES: But it all comes down to obtaining the necessary funding, which will drive timing. UC and CSU systems in the area have major building projects already under way with significant growth ambitions amid financial pressures from state budget shortfalls. If an entity can obtain necessary funding and taxpayer funding, as both are tax- and fee-supported public education government organizations, I’m sure having operations in Otay Ranch would be attractive.
Norm Miller, University of San Diego
NO: Naming some place an “innovation district” does not make it so, nor will it convince USD, UCSD or San Diego State to move there versus downtown or expand near existing campuses. Utilizing a Mexican-led accredited university at the Otay Ranch site like Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, with a campus already in Tijuana, and a cross-border partnership of some sort could accelerate the establishment and growth of a large-scale campus, if that is not too radical an idea.
Jamie Moraga, Franklin Revere
YES: The South Bay could provide opportunities for local universities beyond their current locations for satellite campuses. San Diego State University is planning to build a new TV and film studio in the South Bay, and the University of California is also looking at expansion opportunities there as well. San Diego County universities will make a move if there is demand, it makes financial sense, and if it provides a return on investment.
David Ely, San Diego State University
YES: Several local institutions have expressed interest in establishing a presence in Chula Vista, a large population center with unmet demand for college-level programs. The question is whether the target of more than 20,000 is achievable. For state institutions, funding for enrollment growth would need to be approved. Also, the California Department of Finance projects that the number of high-school graduates will decline over the next decade across the state and in San Diego County.
Ray Major, SANDAG
NO: But they should. South County is the perfect location for a university to start a binational program. Chula Vista is the second largest city in the region and is home to one of the largest populations of young people. The new border crossing at Otay Mesa East will allow the Cali-Baja region to significantly increase cross-border trade and new job opportunities. A university focused on the global supply chain and high-tech manufacturing would be hugely successful.
Caroline Freund, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy
Not participating this week.
Haney Hong, San Diego County Taxpayers Assoc.
NO: But I hope I’m wrong. We shouldn’t think about a new university just in terms of what teaching it might do; we want it to stimulate economic growth through innovative research that can lead to commercial ventures. To be worth the financial risk, whether private or public, a university will come if Chula Vista can make this site also appealing to entrepreneurs willing to take risk and investors with money.
Kelly Cunningham, San Diego Institute for Economic Research
NO: San Diego population has declined, like the rest of California, over the past four years, according to latest population estimates (Jan. 1, 2023) by the California Department of Finance. The number of children has declined even more as shrinking birth rates and households with children move away. Only foreign migration was positive although significantly slowing the past few years as well. The new campus site could draw from other universities, but enrollment overall would decrease.
Have an idea for an EconoMeter question? Email me at phillip.molnar@sduniontribune.com. Follow me on Twitter: @PhillipMolnar