To begin to understand how a “super” El Niño winter could punish the Southern California coast, the historic wooden boardwalk on the Long Beach Peninsula may just offer a glimpse at what’s to come.

Days of intense waves fueled by Hurricane Marie far away in the Pacific left several sections of the boardwalk destroyed after massive swells swallowed protective sand berms and slammed through the seawall.

That force also left several oceanfront homes damaged, some flooded, with at least 24 homes put under evacuation orders until Wednesday morning, as officials assessed the extent of structural damage from the storm, according to the Long Beach Fire Department.

“The whole beach is gone,” said Carmen Vaudry, 58, describing how the sand used to sit just below the boardwalk in front of her home but now appears to have dropped several feet.

But Long Beach wasn’t the only victim of the ocean’s effortless wrath over the weekend. High surf pounded the region’s increasingly fragile coastline from Malibu to San Diego, and experts say it could be only a taste of what is ahead as the El Niño forecast continues to strengthen.

“Unfortunately this is just a preview,” University of California climate scientist Daniel Swain said Tuesday during a discussion of the storm. “The coastal flooding later this year … it will get worse this fall and especially this winter.”

In Dana Point, relentless waves damaged several beachfront homes, destroying decks and tearing through walls. City officials on Tuesday “red-tagged” seven of those homes in the Capistrano Bay District community, deeming them unsafe for residents, and two others were “yellow-tagged,” signifying some safety concerns, according to Dana Point officials.

Farther south in San Clemente, high tides also overran a section of the long-vulnerable coastal railway, once again shutting the route after considerable slope damage and erosion.

The elevated surf also caused a massive sinkhole in the driveway of Nicolas Cage’s oceanfront residence in Malibu, leading to the evacuation of 31 homes and a local emergency declaration. Waves also splashed over sections of Pacific Coast Highway near Point Mugu, and in Seal Beach, coastline parking lots flooded.

Much of Southern California’s coast remains under advisories for beach hazards or flooding through at least Wednesday night, according to the National Weather Service, which warns that the “combination of high surf and high astronomical tides during the evenings” remains.

“I’m highly concerned,” said Matt Taylor, 55, a Peninsula resident who was out Tuesday morning helping clear the street of debris after flooding. “This is just the beginning of the season.”

The threat of a strong El Niño has cities racing to do what they can to prepare for even stronger storms that could bring further coastal damage and flooding.

Long Beach officials said they continue to work to fortify the sand berms and seawall that remain, and are checking drains to ensure any flooding can quickly recede.

In Ventura County, public works crews have said they are sending teams out to identify vulnerable coastal locations to see whether they can be strengthened. Orange County has been rehabbing crucial pump stations that can be used if floodwaters threaten neighborhoods. In fire zones such as Pacific Palisades and Altadena, officials are preparing for possible mudflows.

Almost all coastal communities are stockpiling sandbags.

Although an El Niño year doesn’t guarantee such storms will develop, the climate pattern tilts the odds in favor of a rainier-than-normal winter across Southern California. Scientists have noted that ocean temperatures are already elevated. That pushes tide lines higher and provides extra energy to storms, possibly meaning even stronger waves. A strong El Niño, as is forecast, could push those elevated ocean temperatures higher.

“We are seeing the effects of El Niño already,” said Jonathan Warrick, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

Long Beach Peninsula residents told The Times that the ocean often creeps over the seawall and onto the boardwalk — many homes are built to allow water to drain beneath them — but the magnitude of the waves over the weekend, and how close they came to the boardwalk, was something they’d never seen.

Steve Hood, who’s lived in the area since the 1960s, said he remembered bigger waves hitting the beach in front of the Peninsula during an El Niño winter in 1997 and 1998, but the storm this Labor Day weekend did more damage.

“We still had quite a bit of beach out there then, so it didn’t reach the boardwalk,” said Hood, 70. His home isn’t oceanfront, so he’s not too panicked about the upcoming winter, but he will be prepared for likely flooding, he said.

“It’s going to be impactful, no doubt, if it is as severe as they anticipate,” he said of El Niño.

Many neighbors are hopeful that the city will proceed with a plan for dredging that would dramatically expand the beach and provide more of a barrier against the waves. Long Beach officials did not respond to questions about that project or its timing, and a website with information has had no updates since last year.

“The city’s neglected this for decades,” said Taylor, calling it “unprecedented” how close the tide is to the Peninsula’s boardwalk. While most residents were able to return to their homes Wednesday morning after evacuations, city officials did yellow-tag one home, deeming it safe only for limited access, according to Long Beach fire spokesperson Capt. Jack Crabtree.

The Long Beach Peninsula is a narrow section of upscale homes with beaches on both sides — one facing Alamitos Bay, the other facing the Pacific Ocean.

That location alone makes it particularly vulnerable for flooding and erosion, but it also sits at a low elevation with a south-facing beach, putting it uniquely at risk for strong southerly swells from tropical storms.

Nearby Seal Beach, just across Alamitos Bay, also contends with many of those preconditions. During an El Niño cycle in 1983, waves collapsed the landmark Seal Beach Pier, which has since been rebuilt.

On the Peninsula in Long Beach on Tuesday, several neighbors checked on one another as they cleaned up debris from the flooding and storm damage.

As one woman retreated to her house, she shouted back to her neighbors: “Peninsula strong!”

Staff writers Rong-Gong Lin II and Karen Garcia contributed to this report.

LONG BEACH, CA — A previously healthy 13-year-old Long Beach boy who loved playing soccer has lost the use of his legs after contracting West Nile virus and developing a rare neurological complication, according to his family.

Joseph Vazquez is hospitalized at Children's Hospital Los Angeles after being diagnosed with transverse myelitis, an inflammation of the spinal cord, according to a fundraiser established for his family.

Doctors initially treated Joseph with steroids for transverse myelitis before testing determined West Nile virus was responsible for his complications, his family said.

Joseph's illness comes during Long Beach's worst West Nile virus year in more than a decade. The city had recorded 28 confirmed and probable cases as of Sept. 10, the highest annual total since 2014, when 56 cases were reported. Of this year's cases, 21 involved neuroinvasive disease and 22 patients were hospitalized, according to the Long Beach Department of Health and Human Services.

Joseph's family told KTLA that he has been hospitalized for weeks.

According to the fundraiser, Joseph was a healthy teenager who enjoyed playing soccer and watching the Dodgers, Raiders and Lakers before becoming ill. What began with mosquito bites was followed by a full-body rash, mild headache, increasing leg pain and a low-grade fever.

His symptoms worsened until he lost mobility in both legs. While hospitalized, Joseph also developed severe abdominal pain, a stiff neck and loss of bladder and bowel control, his family said.

After days in intensive care and extensive testing, doctors determined that West Nile virus was responsible for the complications he was experiencing, according to the fundraiser. His family said Joseph continues to experience severe nerve pain from his lower back to his feet

Most people infected with West Nile virus never develop symptoms, while about 20 percent develop fever and other symptoms including headache, body aches, joint pain, vomiting, diarrhea or rash, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Less than 1 percent develop neuroinvasive disease affecting the central nervous system. The CDC says severe neurological disease can include meningitis, encephalitis and acute flaccid myelitis, which can cause limb weakness and paralysis.

The increase in West Nile infections extends beyond Long Beach. As of Oct. 2, California had recorded 252 human cases this year, including 111 in Los Angeles County, according to the state's West Nile virus surveillance system. Nineteen West Nile-related deaths had been reported statewide, including four in Los Angeles County.

Joseph's mother, Maria Salazar, is a widowed mother of three and the family's sole provider, according to the fundraiser. She has remained at Joseph's bedside and has been unable to work while caring for him.

The family created the GoFundMe for Joseph to help cover living expenses, travel, medical-related costs and rehabilitation during his hospitalization and recovery.

As of Monday afternoon, the fundraiser had raised more than $7,100 from 115 donations toward a $12,000 goal."We are holding onto hope knowing that Joseph still has a long road ahead of him," the family wrote.

Long Beach health officials recommend using EPA-registered insect repellent, wearing protective clothing and eliminating standing water where mosquitoes can breed. The city's West Nile virus information page also includes current local case data and information about preventing mosquito bites.

A large pulse of wave energy generated by El Niño conditions, known as a Kelvin wave, is expected to travel up the West Coast, raising sea levels and increasing the risk of coastal erosion for beachfront towns.

As a result, the West Coast can expect to see sea levels begin to rise by up to 1 ft. this month—and scientists say that the phenomenon can create dangerous conditions for humans, and place deadly stress on marine wildlife as it travels up the coastline.

Read more:

What is a Kelvin wave?

Kelvin waves are named after the Scottish engineer, mathematician, and physicist who identified the phenomenon, William Thomson, also known as Lord Kelvin. They are not like the typical waves you see crashing into the beach. They’re planetary waves—large, slow-moving masses of water that can span thousands of miles. Warm water slowly moves along the equator, towards South, Central and North America and can raise sea level for months.

On the surface, their impact might not be particularly noticeable. “It pushes the warm water down deeper and produces a ridge in the ocean itself,” says Paul Roundy, professor of atmospheric science at University at Albany. That causes sea levels to rise, he says. “You would not see anything different, but the sea level would be just a few centimeters higher than it would normally be.”

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While it might not sound like much, coupled with other factors, it can have a major impact on coastlines. “[If] you add that sea level change to the normal tides or strong tide, and then potentially add a storm on top of it, which El Niño intensifies, then it can start to have a meaningful effect on changing the beach erosion and flooding at the coast,” says Roundy.

When was the last Kelvin wave?

This season has already brought a few Kelvin waves to the West Coast. “We've already had probably three or four of them up along the west coast of North America so far,” says Roundy.

A number of coastal California towns, including Malibu, Laguna Beach, and Long Beach, have already seen significant coastal erosion this year—due to a number of factors, including El Niño and Pacific hurricanes. At the end of September, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to help prepare the state for potential El Niño impacts.

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The last strong El Niño event, which took place from 2015-2016, had five Kelvin waves.

On the other hand, the 2022-2023 El Niño, did not produce strong Kelvin waves. That’s because a number of other weather events—including weak westerly winds—did not produce the kind of conditions meant to form them.

How are Kelvin waves linked to El Niño?

Kelvin waves commonly occur during El Niño years, when trade winds that normally push warm surface water toward the western Pacific weaken or change directions, moving warm water east and initiating a Kelvin wave.

There’s a lot of scientific debate about how climate change is impacting El Niño events. However, global temperatures trend higher during El Niño years, as warm water adds heat into the atmosphere. That, coupled with already record breaking global temperatures due to human caused climate change, has scientists predicting that 2027 is likely to be the world's hottest year on record.

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Hurricane Rachel, currently spinning out in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to raise the risk of coastal flooding in Southern California and could bring widespread rain to the region at some point this weekend and early next week.

Forecasters are warning that south-facing beaches such as the Long Beach Peninsula, Catalina Island and the coastline from Malibu to Ventura could be particularly at risk of flooding on account of Rachel, the latest named entrant in an unusually active, El Niño-fueled hurricane season.

Also contributing to the flood risk is the arrival of a Kelvin wave, another feature of El Niño that can raise sea levels by 6 to 12 inches. The higher the seas, the greater the threat for California’s coastline.

The risks of coastal flooding is expected to peak Sunday, said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Oxnard.

“It seems pretty likely that we’re going to have an additional round of significant beach erosion, especially in that Sunday time period,” Kittell said. “And some of those areas have already been impacted by the coastal flooding events and are really vulnerable, without much beach left.”

Tides in Southern California are expected to be 1 foot to 1.5 feet above what would ordinarily be expected without the abnormally warm ocean temperatures wrought by El Niño.

“We could see — it’s on the table — some isolated damage issues,” Kittell said, but perhaps less dramatic than Labor Day weekend, when some homes in Malibu, Long Beach and Dana Point were heavily damaged by swells from Hurricane Marie.

And all this comes as forecasters say odds are increasing that this El Niño will be the strongest in the modern record, which goes back to 1950.

Here’s what you need to know:

Hurricane Rachel

Rachel, which was a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday, is expected to continue weakening as it moves closer to Southern California, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm has been moving northwest, but is expected to make a sharp turn to the right sometime Thursday or Friday, due to a “fairly complicated scenario where we have two abnormal low-pressure systems ... dropping down from the north and will be over the California area sometime between [Thursday] and early next week,” Kittell said.

“They’re going to interact with the remnants and leftovers of Rachel, especially its moisture, and kind of form a new system that’s going to move over our area,” he added.

The odds the system will still be at tropical storm strength by the time it hits Southern California are considered very low, forecasters say.

Rain on the way?

“Right now, it seems like Sunday night through Monday is the time period with the highest chances for rain,” Kittell said.

There’s a 70% to 90% chance that rain will fall at some point between Saturday and Tuesday in L.A. and Ventura counties, Kittell said, with the highest chances between Sunday night and Monday night.

For those running the 2XU Long Beach Marathon Sunday morning, Kittell said he expects a 40% to 50% chance of rain during the day.

“So you can be optimistic and hope for no rain, but certainly those chances are high enough to at least plan for some light rain at some time during that event,” Kittell said.

Not much rain is expected — perhaps one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch, with mountains getting a bit more. Rain rates are probably going to be a quarter of inch per hour or less, making debris flow and landslides unlikely.

For San Diego County, Orange County and the Inland Empire, the chance of rain is expected to increase Sunday through Tuesday, with the best odds Sunday and Monday, according to the weather service office in San Diego.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, forecasters warned of up to 1.2 feet of inundation above ground level “in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways,” the weather service office in Monterey said.

Gusty conditions ahead

Sunday is expected to be the windiest day, “with pretty widespread south-to-west winds, anywhere between 20 to 35 mph gusts,” Kittell said. “It doesn’t look like a great period to go boating.”

Forecasters also expect strong rip currents and dangerous waves, which increase the risk of drowning for people swimming at the beach.

“There is a low but present risk for some locally strong winds as well as a thunderstorm or two,” Kittell said, “coinciding with that coastal flooding risk is also some risk for some high surf and strong rip currents at the beaches.”

Adding to those concerns will be expected high tides, as well as the incoming Kelvin wave.

Kelvin wave

Fueled by El Niño, a “coastally trapped” Kelvin wave has been moving up the coast of the Americas for weeks, bringing with it hotter water and elevated sea levels. When combined with storm swells and high tides, Kelvin waves can increase the risk of coastal flooding.

Until recently, Kelvin waves were a pretty obscure concept. But they’re fundamentally at the heart of El Niño: a climate pattern in which the ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific heat up and spur changes in the atmosphere that can affect weather around the world.

“Coastally trapped” means they must follow a coastal boundary, with the shoreline to their right in the Northern Hemisphere, said Michael Jacox, research oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Fisheries’ Ecosystem Science Division.

The latest Kelvin wave is expected to keep sea levels raised for a while. The initial edge of the wave has probably already passed Los Angeles, and might even be north of San Francisco, Dillon Amaya, an assistant professor at North Carolina State University’s Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, told The Times. More inundation is possible as the Kelvin waves pass through.

“I do think it is safe to say that sea levels will remain elevated for months,” Amaya said. “In fact, the data shows another El Niño-related coastally trapped wave already in transit from the tropics.”

That’s expected, as the last major El Niño spawned five to six such waves, Amaya said.

Part of the reason why Kelvin waves are becoming better known as a hazard has been the rise in sea levels over the decades due to human-caused climate change. Sea levels have risen by about one foot over the past 125 years along the California coastline.

El Niño

On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said the chance of a historic, record-breaking El Niño is now 83%, up from the probability of 75% issued last month.

El Niño typically emerges every two to seven years, and the warming of ocean waters is coupled with changing conditions in the atmosphere, sparking changes in weather across the globe.

For Southern California, the strongest El Niños are typically associated with higher-than-average rainfall. Two of the strongest on record, in 1982-83 and 1997-98, saw very wet winters that left a trail of devastation in California.

That’s not always the case, though. During the 2015-16 El Niño season, California didn’t experience elevated rainfall, but did see record coastal erosion, another hallmark of the climate pattern.

Wide swaths of the Pacific Ocean are now at temperatures never seen before in the modern record. Scientists have observed temperatures underneath the sea surface greater than 18 degrees above the baseline.

“With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,” the Climate Prediction Center said.

Heat

Southern California’s latest bout of extreme heat is expected to begin winding down Thursday or Friday, with the highs of 95 to 105 degrees that were common Wednesday tumbling down into the 70s by Sunday or Monday.

The heat will still be in force on Thursday, with forecast highs of 101 in Paso Robles, 100 in Woodland Hills, 99 in Santa Clarita; 96 in Burbank, Pasadena and Palmdale; 94 in downtown L.A., Thousand Oaks and Santa Ynez; and 92 in Long Beach. An extreme heat warning will be in effect for wide swaths of Southern California through Thursday evening.

There will still be a high risk for heat-related illness and large plume-dominated fires through Thursday, Kittell said.

“Limit outdoor activities to just the early morning hours,” the weather service said. “Stay in air conditioned spaces during the afternoon and evening hours.”

There are initial signs of more heat toward the end of next week and into the following week, according to Kittell.

“Right now, it doesn’t look nearly as extreme as what we just had, but it certainly does look elevated,” he said.

Most comments would be moved into a 90-minute period near the beginning of meetings under an ordinance approved 6-3 Tuesday.

LONG BEACH, CA — The Long Beach City Council voted 6-3 Tuesday to overhaul how residents can address elected officials, advancing new rules that would move most public comment into a 90-minute period near the beginning of council meetings.

Councilmembers Cindy Allen, Kristina Duggan and Megan Kerr voted against the ordinance. The remaining six councilmembers supported it.

The ordinance is scheduled to return to the council Oct. 13 for a second reading and final adoption.

The vote follows months of debate over the city's public-comment procedures and a 7-2 council vote Sept. 1 directing staff to prepare the changes. Patch reported on the proposal in September.

Under the city's current system, residents can comment on regular agenda items as they come before the council. The new rules would instead consolidate comments on most regular business — including staff reports, contracts, resolutions and appointments — into a single period near the beginning of the meeting.

Residents would generally be allowed to speak once during that period for up to three minutes, although the presiding officer could reduce individual speaking times if necessary to accommodate the number of speakers.

The initial public-comment period would last up to 90 minutes. If speakers are still waiting when that period expires, the presiding officer could extend it in 30-minute increments.

Formal public hearings, ordinances, certain budget and tax matters and appeals would continue to have separate opportunities for public comment. Tuesday's vote followed roughly two hours of public testimony, much of it opposing the change.

Opponents have argued that moving comments to the beginning of meetings would force residents to speak before hearing staff presentations or the council's discussion of an issue, potentially reducing their ability to respond to information presented during the meeting.

Supporters have argued that establishing a predictable period for public comment would make council meetings more accessible to residents who cannot wait hours for a particular agenda item to be heard.

The proposal has also been tied to the cost of implementing Senate Bill 707, which expanded remote-access requirements for local government meetings under California's Brown Act.

Long Beach began allowing people to provide live public comment remotely at council meetings in July. City Clerk Monique De La Garza previously said three to four employees staff a call center during meetings to handle remote participation and remain on duty until meetings end.

The city estimated that consolidating most public comment near the beginning of meetings could save $150,632 in City Clerk overtime costs.

SB 707 does not require Long Beach to consolidate its public-comment periods. The decision to change when residents speak is a separate city policy intended in part to reduce the additional staffing costs associated with providing remote participation.

Tuesday's vote also marked a shift from the council's preliminary decision Sept. 1. Allen and Duggan opposed the proposal then, while Kerr voted with the 7-2 majority to move it forward. Kerr joined Allen and Duggan in opposing the ordinance Tuesday.

The measure now heads to its second reading. The Oct. 13 City Council agenda lists the ordinance as Item 25 and calls for the council to adopt amendments to multiple sections of Chapter 2.03 of the Long Beach Municipal Code governing council procedures.